Novaspace reports 43,000 satellites to be launched 2025-2034

Record growth will drive increased use of composites, which are playing a key part in the rapid innovation of launch vehicle and satellite structures. Source | Novaspace, Kerberos Engineering, Orbion Space Technology, Patz Materials and Technology/A&P Technology

Market intelligence group Novaspace (Paris, France) has published the 28^th edition of its annual Satellites to Be Built and Launched, forecasting a decade of record-breaking orbital growth. More than 43,000 satellites are expected to be launched by 2035 — an average of 12 satellites and 8 tons of payload every day. This surge is set to drive a $665 billion market in manufacturing and launch services, fueled by mega-constellations, defense demand and rapid innovation in launch technology.

“We’re seeing a rapid expansion in satellite activity and a shift in how space is used,” says Gabriel Deville, manager at Novaspace. “Satellites are no longer just custom-built assets, they’re evolving into interconnected nodes within decentralized networks. This marks a new chapter in orbital complexity and global connectivity.”

Source | Novaspace

Five mega-constellations will account for 66% of satellites launched between 2025 and 2034 yet contribute just 11% of total market value. The rise of such non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) systems and the shift away from legacy geostationary/ geosynchronous equatorial orbit (GEO) models has largely been fueled by Starlink’s demonstration of scalability and flexibility. Budget priorities, meanwhile, sits with defense. Defense remains the market’s economic anchor, capturing 48% of total value despite representing just 9% of satellite volume.

Read about composites in launchers and satellites:

• Composites end markets: New space (2025)
• Revolutionizing space composites: A new era of satellite materials
• Ultra-thin woven fabric enables 90% resource reduction in satellite solar array manufacturing
• Low-cost, efficient CFRP anisogrid lattice structures

Source | CIRA 

Looking to the launch market, the space transportation sector remains under bottleneck, with SpaceX enjoying a near-monopoly over heavy launch activity in the West. As several providers strive to introduce or ramp up competing vehicles, Starship promises to profoundly redefine space transportation and the space economy at large.

Overall, the manufacturing and launch market offers significant revenue potential, however, targeting this opportunity will require a nuanced approach.

only 7% of the manufacturing market in value is fully open to any manufacturer and 70% is considered “nationally captive,” with the remainder locked by vertical integration of constellations. To compete here, consideration of strategic partnerships through the supply chain is now a must.

about the report

The 28th edition of Satellites to Be Built and Launched offers a 10-year market forecast along with a 20-year strategic outlook, covering demand, supply, technologies and trends across the satellite and launch ecosystem. It includes a complete database of all satellites launched and planned, based on Novaspace’s proprietary forecasts.

Source | Novaspace

The Classic edition provides an in-depth analysis of satellite applications and missions, satellite operators, and users and technology trends in PDF format. It includes Excel databases, covering all satellites, launched in the last decade, as well as satellites currently under construction, and launch forecast for the next decade as well as detailed status and maturity assessments of 550 commercial constellations of five satellites or more and discusses of business cases of the four mega-constellations.

The Premium edition adds access to quarterly update of the satellites launches and manufacturing contracts as well as an extended database of all government and commercial satellites launched and to be launched (10-year backlog and forecast), featuring 30 columns with detailed breakdown: constellation, specific application, manufacturing and launch contract status, information about satellite operator, manufacturer and launch provider.

With more than 40-year legacy of expertise in guiding public and private entities in strategic decision-making, Novaspace offers end-to-end consulting services, from project strategy definition to implementation, providing data-led perspectives on critical issues. Novaspace presents an expanded portfolio of services, featuring combined expertise in management and technology consulting, top-tier executive summits and market intelligence.